The below plot is a bi-density chart of the USDNOK spot rate versus the WTI spot price. The contour lines delimit the empirical joint distribution. The yellow line is the best fit derived from a quantile regression (akin to the historical fair value). The dotted red lines delimit the quantiles for the oil price. This aims to answer the question: Is the Norwegian Krona more sensitive to the price of oil when the barrel trades below/above a given price ?Clearly the chart shows that low oil price are bad for the Norwegian currencies and vice versae. The crosshair shows the current level of oil versus USDNOK….
